Oscar nomination predictions: Who's in for sure (what's up, RDJ!) and who may get snubbed
Can "Barbie" paint the Oscars pink, or will one of the heavier dramas stymie the candy-colored fun?
The field for the 96th Academy Awards (airing March 10 on ABC) will be unveiled Tuesday morning and we'll see if Christopher Nolan's atomic bomb biopic "Oppenheimer" keeps steamrolling or if multiple nominations will go to Greta Gerwig's pop-culture confection. (Who doesn't want to see Ryan Gosling sing "I'm Just Ken" at the ceremony?) And don't forget about the fantastical dark comedy "Poor Things" or Martin Scorsese's Western crime epic "Killers of the Flower Moon," both of which could score a number of nods.
The biggest question: Will the projected nominees get their spot, or will Academy voters choose chaos? Let's separate the potential contenders from the pretenders in the six major Oscar categories:
Best picture
The best: "Oppenheimer" scored top prizes at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, so barring a nuclear apocalypse, that's making it in. The Directors Guild of America nominees often carry over into the best picture race – since 2012, all have wound up competing for the Oscars' top prize, so bet on "Barbie," "Poor Things," "The Holdovers" and "Killers of the Flower Moon" joining Nolan's movie for the party.
The rest: The Producers Guild's larger 10-film field is also a good barometer for best picture, which helps the chances of "Past Lives," "American Fiction," "The Zone of Interest," "Anatomy of a Fall" and "Maestro." That finishes off the likely 10, though "The Color Purple" – boasting a Screen Actors Guild best cast nod – might knock one of those out and Critics Choice nominee "Saltburn" could be a surprise dark horse.
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Best actor
The best: There's so much talent in this category, a dozen qualified stars could make the cut. Thus far, though, it's shaping up to be a two-man race between Golden Globe winners Cillian Murphy ("Oppenheimer") and Paul Giamatti ("The Holdovers"). Colman Domingo ("Rustin") and Bradley Cooper ("Maestro") seem destined to join them after each earning Globe, SAG, Critics Choice and BAFTA nominations.
The rest: With some of the best reviews of his career for "American Fiction," SAG and Critics Choice nominee Jeffrey Wright has a good shot to join them. That said, Leonardo DiCaprio ("Killers of the Flower Moon") is an awards-season favorite just waiting in the wings. Or maybe "Saltburn" going viral on social media helps BAFTA nominee Barry Keoghan's odds to snag his second straight Oscar nod.
Best actress
The best: Globe winners Lily Gladstone ("Killers of the Flower Moon") and Emma Stone ("Poor Things") are in the pole position here. They'll most likely compete against fellow SAG nominees Margot Robbie ("Barbie") and Carey Mulligan ("Maestro").
The rest: Now here's where it gets interesting, and possibly tumultuous if Robbie and/or Mulligan falter. Any remaining spots will likely go to Sandra Hüller ("Anatomy of a Fall") or Greta Lee ("Past Lives"), who both were Globe and Critics Choice nominees. Given that actors comprise the largest voting bloc in the academy, SAG nominee Annette Bening ("Nyad") can't be counted out, while Fantasia Barrino ("The Color Purple") has BAFTA and Globe nods to her credit.
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Best supporting actor
The best: This is looking like Robert Downey Jr.'s year to finally grab Oscar glory (and a career attaboy), so the "Oppenheimer" antagonist is a shoo-in. And given the high awards profile of their movies, it's safe to assume that fellow SAG nominees Gosling and Robert De Niro ("Killers of the Flower Moon") will join the erstwhile Iron Man.
The rest: The rest of the lineup is a big question mark. With a Globe nomination and a National Board of Review win, it looked like smooth sailing for "Poor Things" star Mark Ruffalo until castmate Willem Dafoe took his place in the SAG cut. There's a decent chance both could face each other for Oscar – each is a multiple-time nominee who's never won a golden guy. If only one or neither gets the call, Charles Melton ("May December") and Sterling K. Brown ("American Fiction") are possibilities given their Globe and SAG nods respectively, though newcomer (and BAFTA nominee) Dominic Sessa is dangerous given the love for "The Holdovers."
Best supporting actress
The best: With Globe and Critics Choice wins plus nominations across the board, Da'Vine Joy Randolph ("The Holdovers") is running the table toward an Oscar win. Count fellow SAG nominees Emily Blunt ("Oppenheimer") and Danielle Brooks ("The Color Purple") as locks to get their first Academy Award nods, too.
The rest: There's a bunch tussling for the last two slots. Jodie Foster ("Nyad") has the best shot at grabbing one given her SAG, Critics Choice and Globe nominations. With her memorably eccentric turn in "Saltburn" and buoyed by BAFTA and Globe nods, Rosamund Pike is in the mix as well alongside Julianne Moore ("May December") and SAG nominee Penelope Cruz ("Ferrari"), while BAFTA picks Claire Foy ("All of Us Strangers") and Sandra Hüller ("The Zone of Interest") could make things interesting.
Best director
The best: Oscar watchers know that four out of five DGA nominees get nominated here like clockwork. That said, it's pretty easy to imagine that all of these make the cut: Nolan, Scorsese, Gerwig, Yorgos Lanthimos ("Poor Things") and Alexander Payne ("The Holdovers").
The rest: In case fate holds to form and one of the above is out, a replacement likely arrives via the best picture race. Bradley Cooper ("Maestro") could sneak in, given his BAFTA and Globe nods. Cord Jefferson ("American Fiction") and Celine Song ("Past Lives") are both up for the DGA's first-time feature honor. Or maybe it breaks toward one of the international contenders, with either Justine Triet ("Anatomy of a Fall") or Jonathan Glazer ("The Zone of Interest").
