Oscar predictions: Who will win Sunday's 2024 Academy Awards – and who should

It's not a question of if "Oppenheimer" will win an Academy Award on Sunday. It's more whether director Christopher Nolan will need a little red wagon or a Brinks truck to carry home all the golden treasures.

With a leading 13 nominations, Nolan's atomic bomb thriller rolls into the 96th Oscars ceremony (airing live on ABC, 7 p.m. EDT/4 PDT) as a heavy favorite to pick up some serious hardware, from below-the-line categories to the big-deal races like best actor, supporting actor and picture. At least best actress could be interesting, with previous winner Emma Stone ("Poor Things") vs. newcomer Lily Gladstone ("Killers of the Flower Moon") for all the marbles.

While we root for enough chaos to keep the night interesting, here are our predictions for all the major categories:

Best picture

"American Fiction"

"Anatomy of a Fall"

"Barbie"

"The Holdovers"

"Killers of the Flower Moon"

"Maestro"

"Oppenheimer"

"Past Lives"

"Poor Things"

"The Zone of Interest"

Will win: "Oppenheimer"

Should win: "Barbie"

"Oppenheimer" digs into America's past but it also has awards-season history on its side: Nolan's film won top prizes from the directors, producers and actors guilds, and only one movie, 1995's "Apollo 13," has taken those and not also won best picture. So barring one of the biggest Oscar upsets ever, "Oppy" has this in the bag − although the Oscars' preferential ballot, where voters rank their top choices, at least presents the possibility for a surprise. And if "Barbie" has a chance, we're going for it, because while "Oppenheimer" is definitely a filmmaking feat, Greta Gerwig's fun, pink-washed phenomenon feels more of our time with its gender dynamics and existential themes.

Best actress

Annette Bening, "Nyad"

Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Sandra Hüller, "Anatomy of a Fall"

Carey Mulligan, "Maestro"

Emma Stone, "Poor Things"

Will win: Gladstone

Should win: Hüller

Quality wins by Stone and Gladstone throughout this awards season have made this somewhat of a toss-up: Both snagged Golden Globes, Stone was victorious at Critics Choice and BAFTA (where Gladstone wasn't in the race), but Gladstone has the Oscar edge, given her recent Screen Actors Guild trophy. (The Oscar winner has differed from the SAG victor only three times in the past 13 years.) Both are terrific, though instead of zigging, let's secretly hope for a big zag because Hüller powers every scene of courtroom drama "Anatomy of a Fall" with mystery and magnetism.

Best actor

Bradley Cooper, "Maestro"

Colman Domingo, "Rustin"

Paul Giamatti, "The Holdovers"

Cillian Murphy, "Oppenheimer"

Jeffrey Wright, "American Fiction"

Will win: Murphy

Should win: Wright

As the intriguing man behind the bomb, Murphy has rolled through Oscar season and there's no stopping him now, between a searingly great, complex performance and heavy-duty "Oppenheimer" momentum. Fellow first-timer Wright will no doubt be back in the hunt at some point, but his "Fiction" role just suits everything he does well. As a fiery academic dealing with unsuspecting success, Wright out-curmudgeons the mighty Giamatti, gives an irascible grump a big heart, and, as one of our great character actors, makes the most of his spotlight.

Best supporting actress

Emily Blunt, "Oppenheimer"

Danielle Brooks, "The Color Purple"

America Ferrera, "Barbie"

Jodie Foster, "Nyad"

Da'Vine Joy Randolph, "The Holdovers"

Will win/should win: Randolph

Randolph has run the table toward the Oscars, and she'll be grabbing the glory on Sunday night too. As well she should for such a stunning turn. Following appearances in "Dolemite Is My Name" and "The United States vs. Billie Holiday," Randolph is both entertaining and heartbreaking as Mary Lamb. She's the tough-love head cook of a boarding school who forms a mini-family with a crusty professor (Giamatti) and rebellious student (Dominic Sessa) while also navigating the absolute grief of the first Christmas without her beloved son.

Best supporting actor

Sterling K. Brown, "American Fiction"

Robert De Niro, "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Robert Downey Jr., "Oppenheimer"

Ryan Gosling, "Barbie"

Mark Ruffalo, "Poor Things"

Will win/should win: Downey

He's had box-office success, and his share of ups and downs, but Downey doesn't have an Oscar. That changes Sunday, when he'll clean up at one last awards show and (hopefully) say something interesting with a live mic. He's deserving from a career "attaboy" sense but also from the fact that, after playing a superhero for more than a decade, Downey proved he's great at being an antagonist. As Lewis Strauss, he puts Murphy's J. Robert Oppenheimer through a stressful wringer born of power and pettiness, and in a movie that leans bleak, it's satisfying to witness the ultimate comeuppance.

Best director

Justine Triet, "Anatomy of a Fall"

Martin Scorsese, "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Christopher Nolan, "Oppenheimer"

Yorgos Lanthimos, "Poor Things"

Jonathan Glazer, "The Zone of Interest"

Will win/should win: Nolan

Akin to Scorsese's 2007 win for "The Departed," it's just Nolan's time. While he's only garnered two directing nominations (plus three for best picture, two for original screenplay, one for adapted screenplay), Nolan's filmmaking acumen is on screen for all to see with "Oppenheimer" – the Trinity test alone is breathtaking. But he's carved out an excellent populist filmography for himself, from "The Dark Knight" and "Memento" to "Inception" and "Interstellar," and it's an achievement in itself to create a blockbuster hit out of a dense, three-hour drama about scientists.