NBA draft lottery: Which teams have best odds to reel in this year's No. 1 pick
There isn’t a Victor Wembanyama-type player in the 2024 NBA Draft, but there are players who can help teams. And several teams need all they help they can get.
The Detroit Pistons need to accelerate their rebuild, the Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers are searching for players who will be long-term solutions and the San Antonio Spurs are looking for a player or two (the Spurs could end up with two lottery picks) to add alongside Wembanyama, the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year who appears to be another generational player.
We will find out where each team picks in the lottery when the NBA conducts its annual draft lottery Sunday.
Here is what you need to know about the draft lottery:
When is NBA draft lottery?
Sunday, May 12 in Chicago, 3 p.m. ET.
How to watch NBA draft lottery?
ABC will televise the draft lottery.
How does NBA draft lottery work?
According to the NBA, "Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams.
"All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks."
The remaining lottery teams are slotted in order of their draft odds. Detroit can’t slide any lower than No. 5, Washington no lower than No. 6, Charlotte no lower than No. 7, Portland no lower than No. 8 and San Antonio no lower than No. 9. After that, if a team doesn’t move into the top four via ping-pong ball selection, it can’t move up any higher than its draft lottery odds position. For example, if Toronto, with the sixth-best odds to get a top-four pick doesn’t move in the top four, it can’t land a pick any better than No. 6. If Memphis doesn’t move into the top four, it can’t get a pick any better than No. 7 and so on.
The lottery is conducted in a separate room (with no communication devices, such as cell phones or computers) just before the draft lottery TV show. Select media, NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young will be in attendance in the room for the drawings.
2024 NBA Draft lottery odds
Odds for the No. 1 pick
Detroit – 14% (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 52.13%)
Washington – 14% (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 52.13%)
Charlotte – 13.3% (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 50.28%)
Portland – 13.2% (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 50.01%)
San Antonio – 10.5% (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 42.11%)
Toronto – 9% (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 37.22%) (pick will be conveyed to San Antonio if not among the top 6 picks)
Memphis – 7.5% (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 31.95%)
Utah – 6% (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 26.3%) (pick will be conveyed to Oklahoma City if not among the top 10 picks)
Houston – 4.5% (from Brooklyn) (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 20.27%)
Atlanta – 3% (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 13.88%)
Chicago – 2% (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 9.41%)
Houston – 1.5% (pick will be conveyed to Oklahoma City if not among the top 4 picks) (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 7.12%)
Sacramento – 0.8% (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 3.84%)
Golden State – 0.7% (pick will be conveyed to Portland – via Boston and Memphis – if not among the top 4 picks) (percent chance to get a top-four pick: 3.37%)
Who is the projected No. 1 pick in 2024 NBA Draft?
There is not a definitive No. 1, like last season when Victor Wembanyama emerged as the choice. This season, France’s Alex Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher have been projected No. 1 picks throughout the 2023-24 season.
Who are the other projected top picks in 2024 NBA Draft?
UConn’s Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle, Serbia’s Nikola Topic, Kenctucky’s Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard, Lithuanian-America Matas Buzelis and Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht are potential top-10 picks.
NBA draft lottery simulator results
Using tankathon.com’s draft lottery simulator, this is what the draft lottery results could look like:
1. Washington
2. Detroit
3. Houston
4. Portland
5. Charlotte
6. San Antonio
7. San Antonio
8. Memphis
9. Utah
10. Atlanta
11. Chicago
12. Oklahoma City
13. Sacramento
14. Portland
